How to run a simple holdout test for an ecommerce store

When you must know whether a channel works, attribution is not enough. A holdout test is the simplest honest answer.

Measurement and reporting · 6 min read · Updated 2026-10-07

The idea

Withhold ads from a comparable group and compare orders with the group that saw them. The difference is the lift the ads caused.

Design before you start

  • Split: by region or by audience, in a way that keeps the groups similar in size and in past sales.
  • Period: long enough to collect enough orders, and the same for both groups.
  • Metric: store orders or revenue, not platform reported conversions.
  • Decision rule: what lift means keep, cut or retest, written before the test.

While it runs

  • Do not change budgets, offers or creative in one group only.
  • Note anything else that could differ: a sale, a stock out, a press mention.

Reading the result

  • Compare the groups on the store's own numbers.
  • A small difference on a small sample proves little. Say so.
  • Repeat if the decision is expensive.
The attribution windows guide explains why a window alone cannot prove cause.

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