LinkedInStart with a baseline
Take the same weeks from last year, or from two comparable years if you have them. Use revenue and orders. Note any event that changed the period, such as a stock problem or a late campaign.
Build a seasonal index
- Divide each week's revenue by the average week in the baseline year. A value above 1 marks a peak.
- Smooth the index over two or three weeks, so one odd week does not drive the plan.
- Keep the index in the agency data sheet, with the year and the source.
Made-up scenario: the average week in last year's baseline brought 20,000 in revenue. Week 47 brought 36,000, an index of 1.8. Week 48 brought 28,000, an index of 1.4. The plan can raise budget in those weeks in line with the index, then check the actual MER against the target.
Set targets per period
- Keep one MER target across the year when the margin rate stays the same.
- Use a separate target for sale periods, based on the lower margin rate, and write the reason next to it.
Judge results against the plan
- Compare a period with the same period in the baseline, not with the week before.
- Mark weeks with a known event, so a peak is not read as a trend.
- Review the index once a quarter, and update it when the calendar or the business changes.
